The large-scale automatization of manufacturing processes and of services is not fresh out the box, yet it managed to remain a hot topic. Various online sources have debated in 2015 how the digital revolution will look like and what it will mean for millions of humans whose jobs will be taken over by Artificial Intelligence. Others have discussed this before, and probably the topic will continue to keep its actuality, since the process of adopting robots into various industries cannot happen overnight.
However it seems to never be enough pondering, strategizing and debating when it comes to such a huge disruption. While some worry about the doom of humanity coming from robots stepping in, others praise the fact that people will be saved the harder labors, thus being liberated to perform the more skilled tasks. There is also talk of robots doing operations that humans would not even want – repetitive, mundane, hazardous tasks. Where does the truth lay might be unclear yet, but it is well worth checking a few considerations.
- The current state of AI workforce
Advanced robotics may not look like science fiction movies, yet it is expected to fulfill about 25 percent of all manufacturing tasks by 2025. American workers’ worries are justified, with an estimate coming from Oxford University that holds that 47 percent of the current human jobs will pass on to robots.
Elsewhere in the world, China strives to be the leader of this next-gen industrial revolution in numbers, with declarations such as Cambridge Industries Group’s from Shanghai, which aims for their robots to take over 2000 jobs out of 3000, in what will become the “dark factories” of the future (since robots are able to work continuously, day and night).
Japan is also riding the crest of this wave with its humanoid robotic staff taking over the hospitality industry in a 90 percent proportion – for example the Henn-na Hotel in Japan already made the switch to Kokoro robots. Their American correspondents are Yotel and Starwoods, which introduced robotic staff.
Together, China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. account for 80 percent of the active industrial advanced robotics investments (according to the above-quoted Emerging-Strategy source), with ambitious projects from other countries coming up from behind, such as Germany and its Industry 4.0 campaign. Therefore, we might say the race is on, and the specific market thrives, although investors face a great deal of challenges.
The economies that invest in robotics classify as aggressive adopters (Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand), fast adopters (Canada, China, Japan, Russia, the UK, and the U.S), moderate adopters (Australia, the Czech Republic, Germany, Mexico, and Poland), and slow adopters (Austria, Belgium, Brazil, France, India, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, and Switzerland) – see details here.
- The most vulnerable human employees
Robots are capable of performing monotone, continuous tasks, as well as operations that usually require physical strength in humans. Therefore, it is easy to see how the first wave of vulnerable employees consists of “low- and middle-skilled workers”.
Although the beneficial effects of robots are still under analysis in report with the productivity and overall costs, as Robohub mentions, robotics is yet to evolve, so there is an expectancy of better, more productive, energy-saving robots in the near future.
The same process of perfecting these machines and developing their capabilities generates the expectancy of a second wave of jobs’ takeover: those currently belonging to people who perform intellectual activities that do not require innovative thinking, breakthrough solutions or other exclusively human (so far) qualities. All types of pattern-thinking activities are prone to be attributed to Artificial Intelligence software programs, as soon as they will be commercially accessible and ready-to-use.
In conclusion, factory workers, services industry personnel, hospitality industry staff, even army and certain law-enforcement members may expect to see their jobs taken away from them, as they are replaceable with robots – at least in theory.
There is little consolation so far in this predicted trends. It comes from the idea that robots won’t be given autonomy, nor group coordination, and that human supervisors will be necessary, on premises or remote, in order to guide one or a few robots at a time. When introducing costs into the algorithm, robots are seen more like tools for human workers, than autonomous workers per se. Be it a fact or just a spirits calming image, the idea of humans coordinating these robot workers makes this future work environment concept an easier to swallow pill.
However it would be advisory that this period until full AI adoption to be used for training current low and middle skilled workers for their future robot-coordinating activities. Investing in new skills for humans that are vulnerable to robotics’ revolution effects would be one way to go – but where/who will this investments originate from?
- Anticipatory emerging solutions
More concerned and precautionary parties, such as the British professor Noel Sharkey, have even initiated groups in view of controlling the robots’ expansion into the industry environment, as well as to prevent a disastrous effect upon human workforce – the Foundation for Responsible Robotics aims at avoiding the “potential societal and ethical hazards”.
It may not seem related at first glance, but perhaps the Unconditional Basic Income initiative, if implemented in a functional way, could serve in resolving the future potential large-scale unemployment due to robots’ adoption into various industries. Although the Swiss rejected this project by 76.9 percent, pilot programs have tried to emerge in different places.
A growing obsession in Silicon Valley (!), the universal basic income debuted in June 2016 as a pilot experiment performed on 100 people from Oakland, in a real-life attempt to research and develop an innovative, sustainable social safety net, an alternative to the existing social services/welfare system. Canada also plans to experiment this method, as you can see here.
Still not convinced there is a link between universal basic income and automation? Perhaps check this book, or the Automation Watch website, which, by the way, is in favor of full on automation.
Are some of us preparing for a future world where machines work for humans without letting the most impoverished perish? If so, what are other adjacent measures at the horizon? How will the unemployed, but provided for, humans of tomorrow deal with physical condition issues, depression and other mental affections, or with the paradox of filling their spare time?
- Back to today’s realities
Meanwhile, reports on how robots are performing at their workplace give mixed results. The challenges are huge, and these modern machines deliver the expected results only when carefully programmed, exposed to pre-established conditions and meticulously maintained.
While it is true that the maximum robot adoption pressure seem to come from China, where such a shift is likely to reflect in a huge manner on the global market, it is also possible that there will be weak efforts there in caring in advance for all the human laborers likely to lose their jobs – or, in other words, for a consistent, sustainable transition from human to robotic workforce. The global industry is distributed between a few major economies, and it is less likely for all of them to adopt a common stance than it is to see disrupting, uneven approaches that will ultimately affect all interconnected factors, although a cooperative approach would be of great help.
With a temporary relief coming from the fact that there are quite a few barriers to AI’s widespread adoption, humanity still has time to prepare for the impact of full-on robotics applied in almost all productions and services fields. The AI issue is still up for controversial debates and perhaps equally controversial solutions, where marketing-specific emotional presentations are rather out of place, since the future of humanity is a down-to-earth, serious matter.
Therefore, in-between friendly pet robots and doomsday robotic armies, the question of the future human and robotic workforce is ongoing.
